Factors associated with tuberculosis treatment initiation among bacteriologically negative individuals evaluated for tuberculosis: an individual patient data meta-analysis.

Background: Globally, over one-third of pulmonary tuberculosis (TB) disease diagnoses are made based on clinical criteria after a negative diagnostic test result. Understanding factors associated with clinicians' decisions to initiate treatment for individuals with negative test results is critical for predicting the potential impact of new diagnostics. Methods: We performed a systematic review and individual patient data meta-analysis using studies conducted between January/2010 and December/2022 (PROSPERO: CRD42022287613). We included trials or cohort studies that enrolled individuals evaluated for TB in routine settings. In these studies participants were evaluated based on clinical examination and routinely-used diagnostics, and were followed for ≥1 week after the initial test result. We used hierarchical Bayesian logistic regression to identify factors associated with treatment initiation following a negative result on an initial bacteriological test (e.g., sputum smear microscopy, Xpert MTB/RIF). Findings: Multiple factors were positively associated with treatment initiation: male sex [adjusted Odds Ratio (aOR) 1.61 (1.31-1.95)], history of prior TB [aOR 1.36 (1.06-1.73)], reported cough [aOR 4.62 (3.42-6.27)], reported night sweats [aOR 1.50 (1.21-1.90)], and having HIV infection but not on ART [aOR 1.68 (1.23-2.32)]. Treatment initiation was substantially less likely for individuals testing negative with Xpert [aOR 0.77 (0.62-0.96)] compared to smear microscopy and declined in more recent years. Interpretation: Multiple factors influenced decisions to initiate TB treatment despite negative test results. Clinicians were substantially less likely to treat in the absence of a positive test result when using more sensitive, PCR-based diagnostics. Funding: National Institutes of Health. Research in context: Evidence before this study: In countries with a high burden of tuberculosis, over one-third of notified cases for pulmonary TB are diagnosed based on clinical criteria, without bacteriological confirmation of disease ('clinical diagnosis'). For these individuals with negative bacteriological test results, there is limited evidence on the factors associated with higher or lower rates of clinical diagnosis. In the context of individual clinical trials, some analyses have reported lower rates of treatment initiation for individuals testing negative on new cartridge-based PCR tests (e.g., Xpert MTB-RIF), as compared to individuals testing negative in sputum smear microscopy.Added value of this study: This study conducted a systematic review of studies that collected data on patient characteristics and treatment initiation decisions for individuals receiving a negative bacteriological test result as part of initial evaluation for TB. Patient-level data from 13 countries across 12 studies (n=15121) were analyzed in an individual patient data meta-analysis, to describe factors associated with clinicians' decisions to treat for TB disease. We identified significant associations between multiple clinical factors and the probability that a patient would be initiated on TB treatment, including sex, history of prior TB, reported symptoms (cough and night sweats), and HIV status. Controlling for other factors, patients testing negative on PCR-based diagnostics (e.g., Xpert MTB/RIF) were less likely to be initiated on treatment than those testing negative with smear microscopy.Implications of all the available evidence: Rates of clinical diagnosis for TB differ systematically as a function of multiple clinical factors and are lower for patients who test negative with new PCR-based diagnostics compared to earlier smear-based methods. This evidence can be used to refine diagnostic algorithms and better understand the implications of introducing new diagnostic tests for TB.

Excess tuberculosis risk during and following incarceration in Paraguay: a retrospective cohort study.

Background: The increased risk of tuberculosis (TB) among people deprived of liberty (PDL) is due to individual and institution-level factors. We followed a cohort of PDL from 5 prisons in Paraguay to describe the risk of TB during incarceration and after they were released. Methods: We linked a 2013 national census of prisons with TB records from the TB Program from 2010 to 2021 to identify TB notifications among incarcerated and formerly incarcerated individuals. We used multivariable Cox regression models to quantify the risk of TB during and following incarceration and to identify risk factors associated with TB. Findings: Among 2996 individuals incarcerated, 451 (15.1%) were diagnosed with TB. Of these, 262 (58.1%) cases occurred during incarceration and 189 (41.9%) occurred in the community after release. In prison, the hazard ratio of developing TB was 1.97 (95% CI: 1.52-2.61) after six months of incarceration and increased to 2.78 (95% CI: 1.82-4.24) after 36 months compared with the first six months. The overall TB notification rate was 2940 per 100,000 person-years. This rate increased with the duration of incarceration from 1335 per 100,000 person-years in the first year to 8455 per 100,000 person-years after 8 years. Among former prisoners, the rate of TB decreased from 1717 in the first year after release to 593 per 100 000 person-years after 8 years of follow up. Interpretation: Our study shows the alarming risk of TB associated with prison environments in Paraguay, and how this risk persists for years following incarceration. Effective TB control measures to protect the health of people during and following incarceration are urgently needed. Funding: Paraguay National Commission of Science and Technology grant CONACYT PIN 15-705 (GS, GES, SA).

Performance of a stool-based quantitative PCR assay for the diagnosis of tuberculosis in adolescents and adults: a multinational, prospective diagnostic accuracy study.

BACKGROUND: Despite increasing availability of rapid molecular tests for the diagnosis of tuberculosis in high-burden settings, many people with tuberculosis are undiagnosed. Reliance on sputum as the primary specimen for tuberculosis diagnostics contributes to this diagnostic gap. We evaluated the diagnostic accuracy and additive yield of a novel stool quantitative PCR (qPCR) assay for the diagnosis of tuberculosis in three countries in Africa with high tuberculosis burdens. METHODS: We undertook a prospective diagnostic accuracy study in Eswatini, Mozambique, and Tanzania from Sept 21, 2020, to Feb 2, 2023, to compare the diagnostic accuracy for tuberculosis of a novel stool qPCR test with the current diagnostic standard for Mycobacterium tuberculosis DNA detection from sputum and stool, Xpert-MTB/RIF Ultra (Xpert Ultra). Sputum, stool, and urine samples were provided by a cohort of participants, aged 10 years or older, diagnosed with tuberculosis. Participants with tuberculosis (cases) were enrolled within 72 h of treatment initiation for tuberculosis diagnosed clinically or following laboratory confirmation. Participants without tuberculosis (controls) consisted of household contacts of the cases who did not develop tuberculosis during a 6-month follow-up. The performance was compared with a robust composite microbiological reference standard (CMRS). FINDINGS: The cohort of adolescents and adults (n=408) included 268 participants with confirmed or clinical tuberculosis (cases), 147 (55%) of whom were living with HIV, and 140 participants (controls) without tuberculosis. The sensitivity of the novel stool qPCR was 93·7% (95% CI 87·4-97·4) compared with participants with detectable growth on M tuberculosis culture, and 88·1% (81·3-93·0) compared with sputum Xpert Ultra. The stool qPCR had an equivalent sensitivity as sputum Xpert Ultra (94·8%, 89·1-98·1) compared with culture. Compared with the CMRS, the sensitivity of the stool qPCR was higher than the current standard for tuberculosis diagnostics on stool, Xpert Ultra (80·4%, 73·4-86·2 vs 73·5%, 66·0-80·1; p=0·025 on paired comparison). The qPCR also identified 17-21% additional tuberculosis cases compared to sputum Xpert Ultra or sputum culture. In controls without tuberculosis, the specificity of the stool qPCR was 96·9% (92·2-99·1). INTERPRETATION: In this study, a novel qPCR for the diagnosis of tuberculosis from stool specimens had a higher accuracy in adolescents and adults than the current diagnostic PCR gold standard on stool, Xpert-MTB/RIF Ultra, and equivalent sensitivity to Xpert-MTB/RIF Ultra on sputum. FUNDING: National Institutes of Health (NIH) Allergy and Infectious Diseases, and NIH Fogarty International Center.

Correlates of protection and determinants of SARS-CoV-2 breakthrough infections 1 year after third dose vaccination.

BACKGROUND: The emergence of new SARS-CoV-2 variants and the waning of immunity raise concerns about vaccine effectiveness and protection against COVID-19. While antibody response has been shown to correlate with the risk of infection with the original variant and earlier variants of concern, the effectiveness of antibody-mediated protection against Omicron and the factors associated with protection remain uncertain. METHODS: We evaluated antibody responses to SARS-CoV-2 spike (S) and nucleocapsid (N) antigens from Wuhan and variants of concern by Luminex and their role in preventing breakthrough infections 1 year after a third dose of mRNA vaccination, in a cohort of health care workers followed since the pandemic onset in Spain (N = 393). Data were analyzed in relation to COVID-19 history, demographic factors, comorbidities, vaccine doses, brand, and adverse events. RESULTS: Higher levels of anti-S IgG and IgA to Wuhan, Delta, and Omicron were associated with protection against vaccine breakthroughs (IgG against Omicron S antigen HR, 0.06, 95%CI, 0.26-0.01). Previous SARS-CoV-2 infection was positively associated with antibody levels and protection against breakthroughs, and a longer time since last infection was associated with lower protection. In addition, priming with BNT162b2 followed by mRNA-1273 booster was associated with higher antibody responses than homologous mRNA-1273 vaccination. CONCLUSIONS: Data show that IgG and IgA induced by vaccines against the original strain or by hybrid immunization are valid correlates of protection against Omicron BA.1 despite immune escape and support the benefits of heterologous vaccination regimens to enhance antibodies and the prioritization of booster vaccination in individuals without recent infections.

A stool based qPCR for the diagnosis of TB in children and people living with HIV in Uganda, Eswatini and Mozambique (Stool4TB): a protocol for a multicenter diagnostic evaluation.

BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis (TB) is a major cause of mortality worldwide. Children and people living with HIV (PLHIV) have an increased risk of mortality, particularly in the absence of rapid diagnosis. The main challenges of diagnosing TB in these populations are due to the unspecific and paucibacillary disease presentation and the difficulty of obtaining respiratory samples. Thus, novel diagnostic strategies, based on non-respiratory specimens could improve clinical decision making and TB outcomes in high burden TB settings. We propose a multi-country, prospective diagnostic evaluation study with a nested longitudinal cohort evaluation to assess the performance of a new stool-based qPCR, developed by researchers at Baylor College of Medicine (Houston, Texas, USA) for TB bacteriological confirmation with promising results in pilot studies. METHODS: The study will take place in high TB/HIV burden countries (Mozambique, Eswatini and Uganda) where we will enroll, over a period of 30 months, 650 PLHIV (> 15) and 1295 children under 8 years of age (irrespective of HIV status) presenting pressumptive TB. At baseline, all participants will provide clinical history, complete a physical assessment, and undergo thoracic chest X-ray imaging. To obtain bacteriological confirmation, participants will provide respiratory samples (1 for adults, 2 in children) and 1 stool sample for Xpert Ultra MTB/RIF (Cepheid, Sunnyvale, CA, USA). Mycobacterium tuberculosis (M.tb) liquid culture will only be performed in respiratory samples and lateral flow lipoarabinomannan (LF-LAM) in urine following WHO recommendations. Participants will complete 2 months follow-up if they are not diagnosed with TB, and 6 months if they are. For analytical purposes, the participants in the pediatric cohort will be classified into "confirmed tuberculosis", "unconfirmed tuberculosis" and "unlikely tuberculosis". Participants of the adult cohort will be classified as "bacteriologically confirmed TB", "clinically diagnosed TB" or "not TB". We will assess accuracy of the novel qPCR test compared to bacteriological confirmation and Tb diagnosis irrespective of laboratory results. Longitudinal qPCR results will be analyzed to assess its use as treatment response monitoring. DISCUSSION: The proposed stool-based qPCR is an innovation because both the strategy of using a non-sputum based sample and a technique specially designed to detect M.tb DNA in stool. PROTOCOL REGISTRATION DETAILS: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT05047315.

Improving tuberculosis case detection through contact risk stratification by Xpert MTB/RIF Ultra and spatial parameters: Evaluation of an innovative active case finding strategy in Mozambique (Xpatial-TB).

Prompt diagnosis is critical for tuberculosis (TB) control, as it enables early treatment which in turn, reduces transmission and improves treatment outcomes. We investigated the impact on TB diagnosis of introducing Xpert Ultra as the frontline diagnostic test, combined with an innovative active-case finding (ACF) strategy (based on Xpert Ultra semi-quantitative results and spatial parameters), in a semi-rural district of Southern Mozambique. From January-December 2018 we recruited incident TB-cases (index cases, ICs) and their household contacts (HCs). Recruitment of close community contacts (CCs) depended on IC´s Xpert Ultra results, and the population density of their area. TB-contacts, either symptomatic or people living with HIV, were asked to provide a spot sputum for lab-testing. Trends on TB case notification were compared to the previous years and to those of two districts in the south of the Maputo province (control area), using an interrupted time series analysis with and without control (CITS/ITS). A total of 1010 TB ICs (37.1% laboratory-confirmed) were recruited; 3165 HCs and 4730 CCs were screened for TB. Eighty-nine additional TB cases were identified through the ACF intervention (52.8% laboratory-confirmed). The intervention increased by 8.2% all forms of TB cases detected in 2018. Xpert Ultra trace positive results accounted for a high proportion of laboratory confirmations in the ACF cohort (51.1% vs 13.7% of those passively diagnosed). The Number Needed to Screen to find a TB case differed widely among HCs (55) and CCs (153). During the intervention period, a reversal of the previous negative trend in lab-confirmed case notifications was observed in the district. However, the CITS model did not show any statistically significant difference compared to the control area. Paediatric population benefited the most from the ACF strategy and HCs screening seemed an effective intervention to find microbiological confirmed cases in early stages of the disease.

Monitoring of First-line Drug Resistance Mutations Outside the Scope of Xpert MTB/RIF Ultra is Needed for Successful Control of DR-TB in Southern Mozambique.

Multidrug-resistant(MDR) tuberculosis in Southern Africa is of great concern, exacerbated by the spread of a clone harboring a mutation missed by Xpert Ultra. In Southern Mozambique, the presence of such mutation and rising cases of non-MDR isoniazid resistance highlights the need to ensure accurate detection of antimicrobial-resistance in the country.

Prioritizing persons deprived of liberty in global guidelines for tuberculosis preventive treatment.

In this Policy Forum piece, Aditya Narayan and colleagues discuss the challenges and opportunities for tuberculosis preventive treatment in carceral settings.

An Aspiration to Radically Shorten Phase 3 Tuberculosis Vaccine Trials.

A new tuberculosis vaccine is a high priority. However, the classical development pathway is a major deterrent. Most tuberculosis cases arise within 2 years after Mycobacterium tuberculosis exposure, suggesting a 3-year trial period should be possible if sample size is large to maximize the number of early exposures. Increased sample size could be facilitated by working alongside optimized routine services for case ascertainment, with strategies for enhanced case detection and safety monitoring. Shortening enrolment could be achieved by simplifying screening criteria and procedures and strengthening site capacity. Together, these measures could enable radically shortened phase 3 tuberculosis vaccine trials.

Evaluation of Omnigene-Sputum for Preservation of Sputum Samples for Diagnosis of Mycobacterium tuberculosis.

In several low-income countries, the transport of sputa could take up to one week to reach the laboratories, resulting in increased contamination rates and a loss of growth. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of the OMNIgene-SPUTUM in preserving Mycobacterium tuberculosis on sputum samples simulating three hypothetical scenarios for conservation and/or decontamination: (1) sputum was mixed with OMN and conserved at room temperature for five days and then processed for culture (OMN); (2) sputum cultures followed the routine standing operating procedure at day 0 (STD); and (3) sputum samples were kept at room temperature for five days and mixed with the standard decontamination reagent (SDT5) and then processed for culture. The positivity rate based on smear microscopy was 36.4%, 29.1%, and 27.3% for STD, STD5, and OMN, respectively. The proportion of positive results by liquid culture (MGIT) was 39.1% (43/110) for STD, 26.4% (29/110) for STD5, and 20.0% for OMN (22/110). The overall concordance of liquid culture results was 51.8% (57/110): 37.3% (41/110) for negative results, 11.8% (13/110) for MTBC growth, and 2.7% (3/110) for contaminated results. The OMN arm showed better performance in solid culture than in liquid culture, with a notable reduction in contaminated results.

Measuring indirect transmission-reducing effects in tuberculosis vaccine efficacy trials: why and how?

Tuberculosis is the leading bacterial cause of death globally. In 2021, 10·6 million people developed symptomatic tuberculosis and 1·6 million died. Seven promising vaccine candidates that aim to prevent tuberculosis disease in adolescents and adults are currently in late-stage clinical trials. Conventional phase 3 trials provide information on the direct protection conferred against infection or disease in vaccinated individuals, but they tell us little about possible indirect (ie, transmission-reducing) effects that afford protection to unvaccinated individuals. As a result, proposed phase 3 trial designs will not provide key information about the overall effect of introducing a vaccine programme. Information on the potential for indirect effects can be crucial for policy makers deciding whether and how to introduce tuberculosis vaccines into immunisation programmes. We describe the rationale for measuring indirect effects, in addition to direct effects, of tuberculosis vaccine candidates in pivotal trials and lay out several options for incorporating their measurement into phase 3 trial designs.

Development of treatment-decision algorithms for children evaluated for pulmonary tuberculosis: an individual participant data meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Many children with pulmonary tuberculosis remain undiagnosed and untreated with related high morbidity and mortality. Recent advances in childhood tuberculosis algorithm development have incorporated prediction modelling, but studies so far have been small and localised, with limited generalisability. We aimed to evaluate the performance of currently used diagnostic algorithms and to use prediction modelling to develop evidence-based algorithms to assist in tuberculosis treatment decision making for children presenting to primary health-care centres. METHODS: For this meta-analysis, we identified individual participant data from a WHO public call for data on the management of tuberculosis in children and adolescents and referral from childhood tuberculosis experts. We included studies that prospectively recruited consecutive participants younger than 10 years attending health-care centres in countries with a high tuberculosis incidence for clinical evaluation of pulmonary tuberculosis. We collated individual participant data including clinical, bacteriological, and radiological information and a standardised reference classification of pulmonary tuberculosis. Using this dataset, we first retrospectively evaluated the performance of several existing treatment-decision algorithms. We then used the data to develop two multivariable prediction models that included features used in clinical evaluation of pulmonary tuberculosis-one with chest x-ray features and one without-and we investigated each model's generalisability using internal-external cross-validation. The parameter coefficient estimates of the two models were scaled into two scoring systems to classify tuberculosis with a prespecified sensitivity target. The two scoring systems were used to develop two pragmatic, treatment-decision algorithms for use in primary health-care settings. FINDINGS: Of 4718 children from 13 studies from 12 countries, 1811 (38·4%) were classified as having pulmonary tuberculosis: 541 (29·9%) bacteriologically confirmed and 1270 (70·1%) unconfirmed. Existing treatment-decision algorithms had highly variable diagnostic performance. The scoring system derived from the prediction model that included clinical features and features from chest x-ray had a combined sensitivity of 0·86 [95% CI 0·68-0·94] and specificity of 0·37 [0·15-0·66] against a composite reference standard. The scoring system derived from the model that included only clinical features had a combined sensitivity of 0·84 [95% CI 0·66-0·93] and specificity of 0·30 [0·13-0·56] against a composite reference standard. The scoring system from each model was placed after triage steps, including assessment of illness acuity and risk of poor tuberculosis-related outcomes, to develop treatment-decision algorithms. INTERPRETATION: We adopted an evidence-based approach to develop pragmatic algorithms to guide tuberculosis treatment decisions in children, irrespective of the resources locally available. This approach will empower health workers in primary health-care settings with high tuberculosis incidence and limited resources to initiate tuberculosis treatment in children to improve access to care and reduce tuberculosis-related mortality. These algorithms have been included in the operational handbook accompanying the latest WHO guidelines on the management of tuberculosis in children and adolescents. Future prospective evaluation of algorithms, including those developed in this work, is necessary to investigate clinical performance. FUNDING: WHO, US National Institutes of Health.